So, show of hands: who really thought that former Massachusetts Governor and current GOP presidential hopeful Mitt Romney would win South Carolina?
My hand will stay firmly by my side. I expected Romney to lose South Carolina. I also still fully expect him to get the nod from the party at the GOP Convention despite noting earlier that no Republican candidate for President has ever failed to win South Carolina and gone on to secure the nomination. I think he’s the exception. (No, this isn’t an endorsement, it’s an educated guess.)
I know South Carolina pretty well. I grew up in North Carolina (much of my family still remains) and spent many a summer in Greenville; I’ve been to family reunions in Georgetown; been porch sitting in Rock Hill and wandered around the naval base in Charleston with my brother. And yes, I once bought a Fiat in Pumpkintown. With my background, I feel confident that I easily could rattle off ten reasons why Romney lost South Carolina.
Not releasing his tax returns isn’t one of them.
Despite that fact, which I’m sure his handlers already know, Romney is still getting grief about not releasing his returns. This week, apparently still reeling after the primary loss to former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Romney is going to do something he’s never done before: make his tax returns public. He plans to release his 2010 returns and offer an estimate of what he’ll pay in 2011 (someone get that tax preparer a redeye quick).
I don’t think it will make much difference in the race at this point – which is exactly why Romney is releasing the returns. This is his Obama birth certificate moment. I think Romney realizes that voters are going to talk about those returns until he makes them public. The more that voters focus on the lack of returns, the worse he’s going to look. Romney’s supporters want to move the discussion along.
So what will those tax returns reveal? My guess is nothing we haven’t heard already. We know that he’s rich. Crazy rich. We know that he has offshore accounts. And we know that he pays “about 15%” in taxes.
What else is there to see? I’m sure there’s something there to pick on. But I don’t think we’re going to see any game changing information in those returns. But it sure makes good fodder for Gingrich, who told NBC’s David Gregory:
If there are things in there that can be used against him, we better know it before the nomination. The last thing Republicans want to do is nominate somebody that collapses in September.
You know, like an old ethics violation related to federal tax laws.
Good thing Gingrich is just looking out for the party.
All that said, when the returns are released later this week, I think we’re going to see a flurry of activity that turns out to be pretty much a non-event. I think, by midweek, we’ll all be saying, “There’s nothing to see here, folks, let’s move along.”
