If you felt like your wallet was a few dollars lighter this year, you’re likely right. New tax changes which went into effect for the tax year 2013 finally hit taxpayers in 2014: to date, receipts as reported by the Treasury are up for every single month as compared to 2013.
So far, the government has collected over $1.8 trillion for the calendar year 2014. That represents a nearly 8% jump from collections in 2013. When adjusted for inflation, the numbers still reflect a substantial gain.
Those figures are the latest from the Treasury for 2014. Receipts and outlays are printed each month and released as part of the Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts and Outlays of the United States Government (July’s report downloads as a pdf). The statements have been made available to the public every year since 1977.
July is a particularly interesting time to compare revenues since traditionally the remaining months of the calendar year reflect lighter collections for individual taxpayers. There is an exception: the Treasury expects a bump in receipts each September largely due to quarterly payments, corporate taxpayers and taxpayers on extension. That said, for the calendar year, here’s what the side-by-side comparison of receipts looks like so far (in millions of dollars):
On the fiscal side, July is almost the end of the year (the government’s fiscal year ends in September). If you’re comparing fiscal years as opposed to calendar years, 2014 is still outperforming 2013 in terms of receipts.
The lion’s share of receipts, or about 46%, is comprised of individual income taxes. And it’s not just posturing to say that companies pay less than individuals: corporate income taxes make up just under 10% of total receipts. At the bottom, the much-hated estate tax and gift taxes ring in at less than 1% while Social Security and Medicare taxes, excise taxes and customs duties fill in most of the remaining gaps.
Almost all of those numbers are expected to remain relatively high for the remainder of 2014 and into 2015. With no tax reform in sight, don’t expect tax rates or revenues to change. In fact, tax revenues are projected to reach a record $3 trillion by the end of the year (we’re already at $2.4 trillion for the fiscal year).
There is some good news to be had: while revenues are up, outlays are down. The biggest outlays from the federal government to date are, in order of spending: Department of Health and Human Services, Social Security Administration and the Department of Defense. Those expenditures are fairly predictable. What might not be so predictable is the outlay which ranks fourth: Interest on Treasury Debt Securities.
Those numbers don’t mean we’re not spending. Our outlays still outpace our revenues for the year, leaving a deficit of just over $460 billion. And although that number seems impossibly big, it’s down 24% from the same time last year. We still have a long way to go to see black: the last time that the U.S. budget reflected a surplus for the year was 2001.
