There is no debate that the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are costing U.S. taxpayers big bucks. The National Priorities Project has put the estimated cost of the war in Iraq alone at nearly $500 billion. The New York Times puts the figure at $1.2 trillion. Part of the discrepancy lies in how you classify spending: are costs to rebuild Iraq, for example, part of the cost of the war?
Putting the actual dollars aside for a moment, there is no question that the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are affecting our levels of troops in the military. Enlistment rates are down. Attrition rates from our military academies are up. Enrollment at those same academies is down. Reserves that have been made active (some for more than one term) are up. And the number of military personnel who have died in the Iraq war alone is staggering: 3,857. There are an additional 28,424 wounded troops. These kinds of numbers do not bode well for a continued strong military presence without some sort of change.
So, what kind of change are we talking? We’ve already activated reserves numerous times (my colleague’s husband, an attorney, served two tours). We’ve increased bonuses. We’ve created more financial incentives. We’ve boosted our PR and media dollars on new ad campaigns. What next?
You’ve heard the whispers: a draft.
I know, I know. This is a tax blog. What does it have to do with the draft?
Plenty. Michael Sabin, a professor at Harvard University, has re-opened the dialogue about the conscription tax mainly because, as he points out, “Public debate about military draft is back in headlines” and “public finance and political science scholars never made a systematic evaluation of the draft” using tax policy. (hat tip: TaxProf Blog)
Conscription is a fancy word for draft – maybe it’s easier for people to stomach when it’s crafted in those terms. But, basically, he’s talking about a draft tax.
This idea of a conscription tax is not a novel idea. It was extensively considered in the Gates Commission report to Nixon in 1969 and the early 1970s about whether a return to an all-volunteer military was a good idea. The report was thought to have been ordered because of the rise in protests following the institution of the “draft lottery” to fill military needs in Vietnam; at one point, 40,000 men per month were being ordered to active military service.
The Commission considered a number of factors when examining the role of the draft in our military. Surprisingly, economics, not patriotism, was at the center of the debate. In fact, the role of the conscription tax was so important to the Commission that they devoted a whole chapter (Chapter 3) to this argument. Namely, the Commission found:
Although the budget for a volunteer armed force will be higher than that for a mixed force (volunteers and conscripts), the actual cost will be lower… Men who are forced to serve at artificially low pay are actually paying a form of tax, which subsidizes those who do not serve. Furthermore, the output of the civilian economy is lower because more men serve in the military than necessary for an all-volunteer force of the same strength.
(emphasis added)
The Commission also considered:
This concept of the tax does not include the income loss suffered by true volunteers whose military compensation is held below the level which would be required to maintain an all-volunteer force, nor does it include the amount by which all-volunteer pay rates would exceed the pay levels at which some of the current draftees and draft-induced enlistees would enter on a voluntary basis.
In other words, the likely economic result of the draft is that, over time, we will pay more money overall to “hire” non-voluntary military and those who volunteer in our military will likely receive less money. When you consider the effects of the displacement of human capital, the economic picture is even more muddied.
I will admit that I am more than a little interested in this notion of the economic tax consequences of the draft. Geeky interest over tax and politics aside, I am closely connected to the military. My older brother served in the US Navy for about 10 years – he was active during the first Gulf War. My younger brother has been in the US Navy for more than 10 years and is active military (in fact, he is currently out to sea “at an undisclosed location”). Add that to a plethora of uncles, grandparents, and in-laws and we have quite the military history in our family. This means, necessarily, that I think about some of these things with a different point of view than I might otherwise. But that’s a good thing.
It’s easy to think about war and military in terms of plain dollars. But that would be missing the bigger picture. We need to consider the impact not only on our taxpayers (would we be shelling out more?) but on our military families (are they to receive less?). What about the impact on our current economy if we reinstate the draft?
Sabin is right that this kind of dialogue has been largely missing from our current debates about the role of the military in Iraq, Afghanistan, and other countries. We should not allow our politicians to restrict the conversation on these issues to one or two note sound bites. There’s far too much at stake.
It’s interesting to look at the economic costs of war in this sense. While a draft might be economically difficult, it might be necessary if we are to continue on in this war (a decision which, itself, is debatable). And of course, when you add the cost of a draft to the rest of the costs of war, it starts to create a picture of war as being quite expensive. On a variety of levels.
I’ve had about my fair share of this war-thingy. My husband was activated (reservist) last year ago and had to leave us for one year. We can’t wait for him to come home needless to say. That left me with three kiddies all under 10. This war and the trail its leaving behind is disheartening. But with all that’s going on, I can’t help but be a little selfish. A draft? Just as long as they leave us alone!
All things concidered forget the current war. Miliitary service should be mandatory for the simple fact of instilling dicipline in the uncontrolled youth of this country.
Jason
I agree, a quote from another blogger stated it best “I think if a right is automatic it is taken for granted, If it is a privilege that is fought for or earned, it is more valued.” I think that is what our young americans are missing.